I don't believe we are seeing a real recovery. Yes there are some "better" to "good" numbers in stats but I believe the true beneficiaries in these stats are limited to the smaller percentage of people so we will see a recessionary/credit crunch type scenario whereby higher returns will be sought from investors buying bonds, the higher cost bonds will add to borrowing costs to banks and be passed onto borrowers.
Globally, not just locally....
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
I don't believe we are seeing a real recovery. Yes there are some "better" to "good" numbers in stats but I believe the true beneficiaries in these stats are limited to the smaller percentage of people so we will see a recessionary/credit crunch type scenario whereby higher returns will be sought from investors buying bonds, the higher cost bonds will add to borrowing costs to banks and be passed onto borrowers.
Globally, not just locally....
Dunno about ya punts on economics/house prices? - You could well be right - As stated: I simply don't know. But I reckon you're a pretty insightful dude either which way:
Poontang:
"There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell."
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
I still beleive it will be the bond market rate forcing up MORTGAGE rates into the near future (central bank rates will probably remain fairly low)
An extension of the Transmutation mentioned on this forum. The rich getting richer and the middle/lower classes treading water or going backwards.
Private debt levels are very high and many will struggle as mortgage rates rise.
Probably a couple of years before real increases in bankrupt/default rates flow through data though. It is not going to happen overnight.
3 or so years for a number from a dart thrown at the dartboard..
House prices supposed to track incomes over time.... Well incomes are not going to have the same wage growth in the near term... All those volatile items that get removed from CPI calculations because they are, well too volatile will still be drags on discretionary income.
If foreign money is supporting house prices then that is not really good for the economy because it is giving a false sense of the economies position.
As I have said in another thread, I don't think we will have a wide spread property crash of 40% but I can see some areas of Melbourne's Northern and Western suburbs being significantly cheaper in a 3 to 5 year period (significant being 20% or more).
+1 in a normal world.
We do not trade in an environment that is in most understood terms considered normal.
In the long run (how long is piece of string) the markets will revert to mean and bond markets will take their pound of flesh. At the moment that is not possible/probable given the QE positions of the central banks. Governments are fighting a trade war and the currencies are the pawns.
In really simple terms expect low interst rates in Australia (this depends on china, which is amost a given) for the long term. There may be a short term pause which will manifest is an at most .5% rise during 2014, but be steadfast it will fall again not long after the rise occurs (within 8 months). Interest rates are part of a larger global picture which can only support lower rates. good luck.
For the above to change we would need a major and serious international conflict....which is not on my window.
We do not trade in an environment that is in most understood terms considered normal.
In the long run (how long is piece of string) the markets will revert to mean and bond markets will take their pound of flesh. At the moment that is not possible/probable given the QE positions of the central banks. Governments are fighting a trade war and the currencies are the pawns.
In really simple terms expect low interst rates in Australia (this depends on china, which is amost a given) for the long term. There may be a short term pause which will manifest is an at most .5% rise during 2014, but be steadfast it will fall again not long after the rise occurs (within 8 months). Interest rates are part of a larger global picture which can only support lower rates. good luck.
For the above to change we would need a major and serious international conflict....which is not on my window.
I think at some point the central banks will lose control. The market will eventually win, like you said, "How long is a piece of string?" in regards to how long this will take.
QE positions of central banks vary, trade wars and currency wars are speeding up the process.of them losing control imo.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
I don't believe we are seeing a real recovery. Yes there are some "better" to "good" numbers in stats but I believe the true beneficiaries in these stats are limited to the smaller percentage of people so we will see a recessionary/credit crunch type scenario whereby higher returns will be sought from investors buying bonds, the higher cost bonds will add to borrowing costs to banks and be passed onto borrowers.
Globally, not just locally....
FWIW, I get frustrated at myself often when I can not put in to words exactly what I am trying to say....
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict. Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.
The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.
Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
FWIW, I get frustrated at myself often when I can not put in to words exactly what I am trying to say....
I blame the difference in fonts from when you type a post to when it's published (one of my pc's is much worse than the other for some reason). Try using the 'preview' tab before hitting 'post reply'
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
The man was a visionary. We are now in a brave new world. Peter :pop:
Try Cloud Atlas by David Mitchell, an excellent read that I am quite sure you will enjoy excellent study on past, present and future human society.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Try Cloud Atlas by David Mitchell, an excellent read that I am quite sure you will enjoy excellent study on past, present and future human society.
Thank you for that. Peter
Poontang
22 Dec 2013, 06:02 PM
FWIW, I get frustrated at myself often when I can not put in to words exactly what I am trying to say....
I think we all get that. Peter
herbie
21 Dec 2013, 10:04 PM
The Joy Boy quite correctly identifies "the $4 trillion housing market" as being "the cornerstone of consumer wealth and all bank balance sheets" - So it's Too Big To Be Allowed To Fail - Very obviously.
So I agree with your 'best guess' - A low interest rate environment is our future - If at all possible.
Two side comments:
* Reckoned I was gunna get trashed from my job back in the middle of the year. Was (and remain) heavy in cash. Started snooping around blocks of units where I am, priced at about a mill or less. Plenty about. But there's eff all now.
* One of the few remaining ones I enquired about today has just gone under contract - Yet again! The agent said the banks refused ta pony up the loot for the previous contracts. Though with this one being a cash offer (subject ta building 'n pest only), he expects it will go through.
And that $4trillion in "wealth" makes no income for the owners??? Interesting. Very interesting. Peter
The man was a visionary. We are now in a brave new world. Peter :pop:
The Actor that played Mustapha Mond with his classical voice training stole the movie, in the actors bio the movie is hardly mentioned. In hindsight it will be seen as his greatest role. In 1980 the movie looked a little silly, now it's a classic. There's something appealing about a fanatic with conviction.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
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