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SoCal: November Home Sales Down 10.4% year-over-year
Topic Started: 17 Dec 2013, 09:33 PM (479 Views)
peter fraser
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SoCal: November Home Sales Down 10.4% year-over-year
Foreclosure Resales lowest since May 2007
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Southern California’s housing market downshifted last month, with sales falling well below a year earlier as investor activity waned again and buyers continued to struggle with higher prices and a thin supply of homes for sale. ... A total of 17,283 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 14.2 percent from 20,150 sales in October, and down 10.4 percent from 19,285 sales in November 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Last month’s sales were 19.8 percent below the average number of sales – 21,559 – in the month of November. Southland sales haven’t been above average for any particular month in more than seven years. November sales have ranged from a low of 13,173 in November 2007 to high of 31,987 in November 1988.

Foreclosure resales – homes foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 6.3 percent of the Southland resale market in November. That was the same as in October and was down from 15.4 percent a year earlier. The October/November foreclosure resale rate was the lowest since it was 5.5 percent in May 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 12.7 percent of Southland resales last month. That was the lowest since October 2008, when it was also 12.7 percent. Last month’s short sale figure was down from an estimated 12.9 percent the month before and down from 26.6 percent a year earlier.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 26.1 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That’s the lowest share for any month since it was 25.1 percent in November 2011. Last month’s absentee level was down from a revised 27.1 percent the month before and down from 28.7 percent a year earlier. The absentee share has trended lower almost every month this year since hitting a record 32.4 percent this January. The monthly average since 2000, when the absentee data begin, is 18.5 percent.
emphasis added
Both distress sales and investor buying is declining - and this is dragging down overall sales (plus inventory is still very low). However conventional sales are up about 25% year-over-year (a positive sign).
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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peter fraser
17 Dec 2013, 09:33 PM
SoCal: November Home Sales Down 10.4% year-over-year
Foreclosure Resales lowest since May 2007
link

Southern California’s housing market downshifted last month, with sales falling well below a year earlier as investor activity waned again and buyers continued to struggle with higher prices and a thin supply of homes for sale. ... A total of 17,283 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 14.2 percent from 20,150 sales in October, and down 10.4 percent from 19,285 sales in November 2012, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

Last month’s sales were 19.8 percent below the average number of sales – 21,559 – in the month of November. Southland sales haven’t been above average for any particular month in more than seven years. November sales have ranged from a low of 13,173 in November 2007 to high of 31,987 in November 1988.

Foreclosure resales – homes foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 6.3 percent of the Southland resale market in November. That was the same as in October and was down from 15.4 percent a year earlier. The October/November foreclosure resale rate was the lowest since it was 5.5 percent in May 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 12.7 percent of Southland resales last month. That was the lowest since October 2008, when it was also 12.7 percent. Last month’s short sale figure was down from an estimated 12.9 percent the month before and down from 26.6 percent a year earlier.

Absentee buyers – mostly investors and some second-home purchasers – bought 26.1 percent of the Southland homes sold last month. That’s the lowest share for any month since it was 25.1 percent in November 2011. Last month’s absentee level was down from a revised 27.1 percent the month before and down from 28.7 percent a year earlier. The absentee share has trended lower almost every month this year since hitting a record 32.4 percent this January. The monthly average since 2000, when the absentee data begin, is 18.5 percent.
emphasis added
Both distress sales and investor buying is declining - and this is dragging down overall sales (plus inventory is still very low). However conventional sales are up about 25% year-over-year (a positive sign).
The only reason things don't look worse is because the US government uses that 85 billion a month stimulus to buy mortgage backed securities that nobody else wants to touch.
What happens if they stop borrowing money for which they cannot repay to repay previous borrowings they could not pay.
:
Bit like this Peter, you borrow 500k ,business slows , you pay interest only. My previous neighbour was over sixty and was paying interest only on his ppor. He sold at a loss after renovations, anyway its like maxing a credit card, then getting another one to pay for it, Max that out too and get another and then another and then another. A mindless debt cycle that cannot repaid. They can only borrow more to repay old debt as they only know how to consume these days not produce. We have and are following in their exact footsteps, a path to glory or ruins, I let you be the judge.
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