Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Australian Property: Proceed With Caution; The 2003 bubble was pricked by rising interest rates, an unlikely event any time soon
Topic Started: 16 Dec 2013, 09:55 PM (1,558 Views)
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Property: proceed with caution

David Bassanese
13 Dec 2013

Reflecting low interest rates, better affordability, strong population growth and increased foreign interest, housing demand and house prices have been on a decent upswing over the past year – particularly in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

One of the few bright spots in the economy is the burgeoning strength in the housing market. Reflecting low interest rates, better affordability due to earlier house price weakness, strong population growth and increased foreign interest, housing demand and house prices have been on a decent upswing over the past year – particularly in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. And while I have long argued that house prices are not (yet) in a bubble – based on historic valuation metrics – one worry has been the growing imbalance between investor and first home buyer demand. In particular, investor demand has been especially strong and is already reaching the heights evident during Australia’s last real speculative property frenzy around a decade ago. Either the market is getting a little unbalanced or important structural changes are taking place.

In October, the share of home lending directed at first home buyers had fallen to 7.1 per cent, broadly equal to the lows of late 2003

In other words, the composition of housing demand is now similar to that when Australia’s last clear case of speculative property excess finally came to an end. That might suggest a rerun of the house bubble a decade ago. But does this mean the housing market is about to implode? No – or at least not for a while yet. For starters, the 2003 bubble was pricked by rising interest rates – an unlikely event any time soon given the sluggishness of the economy. And as noted so far, house prices relative to incomes and interest rates don’t yet appear grossly overvalued, so the Reserve Bank won’t feel the need to bring forward rate rises to prick a bubble that is not yet evident.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/p/personal_finance/smart_money/property_proceed_with_caution_7vIIRqEVFe4Y2AIzmc47JJ
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

What can the average person put their money into other than housing??
Good luck.
Peter
:pop:
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
goldbug
Default APF Avatar


foxbat101
17 Dec 2013, 12:17 AM
What can the average person put their money into other than housing??
You may as well buy stocks, both are overinflated to buggery.

Shadow was hopelessly wrong about the Gold Bull Market.
What else is he wrong about?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


goldbug
17 Dec 2013, 06:49 AM
You may as well buy stocks, both are overinflated to buggery.
There is very little in the way of positive investment that is attractive. But you can always short. Not a big fan myself, but some like it.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Admin
Member Avatar
Administrator

Quote:
 
Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens says interest rates could fall further

December 18, 2013 10:17AM

INTEREST rates could come down further, with Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens indicating the central bank has an "open mind" about further shifts on monetary policy.

Fronting a parliamentary committee in Canberra this morning Mr Stevens said the economic year had not been as good as the RBA had hoped, but not as bad as it could possibly have been.

He said it was not out of the question that the official cash rate could come down further from the current 2.5 per cent.

"The board has an open mind about whether need to lower interest rates further," Mr Stevens said.

Consumers have enjoyed record low interest rates post the global financial crisis, resulting in more first-time homeowners getting into the market.

However Mr Stevens said that a further lowering of interest rates may not be enough to encourage spending and investment in other areas.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/reserve-bank-governor-glenn-stevens-says-interest-rates-could-fall-further/story-fncynjr2-1226785630821
Follow OzPropertyForum on Twitter | Like APF on Facebook | Circle APF on Google+
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy