You would be happy with the ABS spending billions of dollars of taxpayer money to survey 15 million people each month? Glad you're not running the country.
The report makes it very clear that the results are not comprehensive. This text is contained in the body of the report...
These auction results are compiled by Home Price Guide ® (Phone: 1800 817 616) based on results collected on or before Saturday 14th December 2013. For a more comprehensive list of results covering all reported sales by postcode for the past 12 or 24 months, visit www.homepriceguide.com.au.
How do you get billions of dollars? The 2011 census which is a far more in depth survey and counts far more people, cost about $440 million, of that, $159 million was to the people who hand delivered and collected the forms, I assume the employment survey is done through a call centre.
No, the disclaimer doesn't make it clear that the results are not complete, it states that it's based on results collected on or before the Saturday, it doesn't state how many of the results are collected, if the total results are collected or if only a few are collected.
I do like the 'For a more comprehensive list of results covering all reported sales...' Which basically means they're too lazy or inefficient to go out and collect the results themselves, they rely on other companies to give them the results that they collate for said companies.
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How do you get billions of dollars? The 2011 census which is a far more in depth survey and counts far more people, cost about $440 million
So you would be happy with an unemployment snapshot that comes out once every five years like the census? How does that help run the economy? Great, every five years we can find out what the unemployment rate used to be.
The unemployment report is monthly - if the ABS needs to poll the entire population every month it is going to cost a lot more than a once-every-five-years survey, right? And the time lag from census night to published census results is about 6 months or more (depending on the report). And the ABS doesn't just report on unemployment. I assume you want the ABS to provide 'complete' reports for all their other reports, not just unemployment?
Easily billions. Many many billions. Really glad you're not running the country! Not only would Australia be bankrupt, but I would be being pestered by the ABS every day for their latest survey. How many hours would I be wasting on the phone each month talking to the ABS?
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No, the disclaimer doesn't make it clear that the results are not complete, it states that it's based on results collected on or before the Saturday, it doesn't state how many of the results are collected, if the total results are collected or if only a few are collected.
I do like the 'For a more comprehensive list of results covering all reported sales...' Which basically means they're too lazy or inefficient to go out and collect the results themselves, they rely on other companies to give them the results that they collate for said companies.
Well, it's pretty clear to me that nobody can provide for free the result of every auction in Australia by 6PM on the Saturday on which the auctions are held. The report says a more complete list is available elsewhere. Perhaps that is too nuanced for you, but I reckon it would be clear enough to anyone who was interested enough to check into it.
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they're too lazy or inefficient to go out and collect the results themselves
No, it's that they don't have authority to collect all the results immediately. There is no law in Australia mandating that real estate agents must immediately report to APM. Eventually the data will, by law, be available at the Lands and Titles Office. If you want the complete data, get the raw data from the Lands and Titles Office, and pay for it (or pay APM to get it from there and compile it into a nice report for you).
I do like the 'For a more comprehensive list of results covering all reported sales...' Which basically means they're too lazy or inefficient to go out and collect the results themselves, they rely on other companies to give them the results that they collate for said companies.
No, it means they charge for it. Is it really a surprise the report you pay for is more comprehensive than the one which is free?
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
The unemployment report is monthly - if the ABS needs to poll the entire population every month it is going to cost a lot more than a once-every-five-years survey, right? And the time lag from census night to published census results is about 6 months or more (depending on the report). And the ABS doesn't just report on unemployment. I assume you want the ABS to provide 'complete' reports for all their other reports, not just unemployment?
Easily billions. Many many billions. Really glad you're not running the country! Not only would Australia be bankrupt, but I would be being pestered by the ABS every day for their latest survey. How many hours would I be wasting on the phone each month talking to the ABS?
Well, it's pretty clear to me that nobody can provide for free the result of every auction in Australia by 6PM on the Saturday on which the auctions are held. The report says a more complete list is available elsewhere. Perhaps that is too nuanced for you, but I reckon it would be clear enough to anyone who was interested enough to check into it.
No, it's that they don't have authority to collect all the results immediately. There is no law in Australia mandating that real estate agents must immediately report to APM. Eventually the data will, by law, be available at the Lands and Titles Office. If you want the complete data, get the raw data from the Lands and Titles Office, and pay for it (or pay APM to get it from there and compile it into a nice report for you).
Ooooh, Im so tempted to feed the troll!
ie, I'm sure if the abs were to do a monthly survey, they could do it much cheaper than doing one every five years.....but, trying not to be diverted, I think we may get a little back on track by understanding that the ABS (despite all their flaws) are impartial observers.
One can not say the same for a company that is a wholey owned subsidiary of another company that derives a huge benefit from the house price frenzy- they are pumping up through other means.
I loved the 'news' article the other day by the "business editor" in the Daily Telegraph about his recent purchase of a car space for $80,000 and what an outstandingly good investment it was.
You might not be able to affoard your first home, but at least you have somewhere to park your car!
Thank god I don't own or rent in a building that would allow such a danger to the security of it's residents or owners.
Just who has a security swipe to your digs?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE! Share a cot with Milton?
Happens with median prices as well. Price falls - "Look how the property market is crashing as indicated by median prices published" Price rises - "Those dodgy RE vested interests produce lying numbers and can't be trusted" Even the ABS was put in the same boat when it showed prices starting to rise again.
Industry participants and auction fanantics watch and know the trend, but the Saturday night headline is what Joe public gets.
There's been a recent debate sparked on the matter in the Australian Financial Review with numerous articles written by Mark Bayley, a credit strategist at Aquasia, an independent corporate advisory partnership, under headlines including 'Lies, damned lies'; 'Auction clearance rates'; 'Misleading property auction figures "put buyers at risk"'; and '1,438 auctions missing: Sydney’s Impossible Property Search'.
Bayley's contention is that this initial reported rate fails to tell the actual situation in the weekend property markets. He's right because of the 995 scheduled Sydney auctions, only 669 were reported.
But then Bayley ill-advisedly suggests the 509 sales should be calculated using the 995 number to conclude "Sydney’s real auction clearance rate was 51.2%."
Bayley maintains the data collection methods were open to systematic abuse and the published auction clearance rates had the potential to vastly overstate the health of the market. He's even had the support of the ABC's so-called Fact Check unit which says his conclusion that auction clearance rates aren't "transparent, real or representative of what happens at auctions on any given day" checks out.
Sure even the updated tally is never 100% of all scheduled auction results, but I am not one for conspiracy theories - and anyway for mine the bigger issue is withheld prices after public auctions. That's the most important issue of public market knowledge, rather than the overall tally.
And I would also suggest Bayley's preferred calculation method would vastly understate the health and wealth of the auction market.
I started the manual weekly tabulation and publication of timely auction results in the Sydney Morning Herald in the late-1980s, just as auctions really took off as a means of sale in select Sydney suburbs. It came from the results faxed by Sydney's leading estate to the team of property journalists at the paper.
This December 1990 SMH article (above) illustrates the first two years of the auction result coverage starting with the December 1988 clearance rate of 50% dipping interestingly to a 36% low by November 1989.
Prior to that there had been private treaty results, sans street number, which leading franchise groups had mailed to the SMH after settlements.
The weekly auction tabulating was subsequently outsourced to the content management firm of Horan Wall & Walker who produced the Home Price Guide and this morphed into what is now the Fairfax Media-owned Australian Property Monitors whose general manager Anthony Ishac today defended the clearance rate method in the AFR.
"APM believes the vast majority of agents do the right thing and report results in a timely and transparent manner – inclusive of properties that fail to sell or that are withdrawn from sale."
"APM has been collecting and publishing auction results for the major capital cities for more than 20 years, providing a reliable snapshot of how demand and supply in the auction market is behaving and as a leading indicator for the overall property market," he advised.
Ishac effectively argues Bayley is wrong to imply clearance rates “cannot be relied upon to show trends in the industry.”
While Bayley suggests the results give "almost meaningless results and limited insights", Ishac is right to assert that auction clearance rates do reliably provide the earliest of indicator of the property market performance.
One survey per month for five years = 60 surveys (just for unemployment).
You think the ABS could conduct 60 surveys of the entire population much cheaper than one survey?
Yeah, good luck with that.
It seems you and Kulganis haven't really thought this through...
I see you continually ask questions, but fail to answer them.
The true mark of a troll.
Yes I think that they could do that.
With the right technology, they could probably even set up a system allowing us all to regularly vote in the federal parliament, as well as run surveys, for the cost of two census'.
Why the hell they are running a census pretty much like the romans did is a beyond me.
Sure the homeless, and the traveller cause a bit of difficulty, but with ato data matching technology linked with a few other data bases, much of what the census hopes to achieve is already collected as part of the information already collected, and can be geographically linked down to the household level.
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