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ABC Fact Check - dodgy auction figures
Topic Started: 15 Dec 2013, 07:30 PM (5,071 Views)
Ex BP Golly
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No brainer really!

Auction clearance rates in Sydney, Melbourne based on incomplete data

SUN 15 DEC 2013, 6:00 PM AEDT

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-15/auction-clearance-rates-base-on-incomplete-data/5143856

"...... The verdict
Mr Bayley says auction clearance rates aren't transparent, real or representative of what happens at auctions on any given day. APM does not include a significant number of auctions in its calculation of clearance rates, nor does it include this number in its results reports, although it publishes the number of total listings the previous week. RP Data includes the number of total listings in its reports but does not use it when it calculates its clearance rates.
Mr Bayley's claim checks out."
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themoops
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We've known for ages that auction stats are a joke.

This should be the first story on the ABC news, on the 7:30 report, a story on Four Corners, and repeatedly on Q&A.

But they won't do that, so fuck the ABC.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

and yet you were all happy to use it when it showed a downward trend.

now that it's surging up, you are crying about it. this is just like that dickhead bobby and his "ABS will show the truth" embarrassment.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Ex BP Golly
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Pig Iron
15 Dec 2013, 11:01 PM
and yet you were all happy to use it when it showed a downward trend.

now that it's surging up, you are crying about it. this is just like that dickhead bobby and his "ABS will show the truth" embarrassment.
Troll strawman alert.

"you were all happy....."

Prove it little bore.
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Shadow
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Ex BP Golly
15 Dec 2013, 07:30 PM
Mr Bayley says auction clearance rates aren't transparent, real or representative of what happens at auctions on any given day. APM does not include a significant number of auctions in its calculation of clearance rates
The APM results are just a free sample. They don't claim to have all the data - how can APM (or anyone) be expected to collect the result of every auction in Australia, and then compile this data into a report ready for release at 6PM each Saturday, and do this all for free? It's impossible.

Using Bayley's logic, Australia's real unemployment rate is over 99%, because we must assume that all the people not included in the monthly ABS employment survey are unemployed. The monthly ABS unemployment survey uses a much smaller sample set (as a proportion of the total population) compared to the APM auction survey. At least with the APM auction survey, they do include MOST auctions, whereas the ABS unemployment survey only samples about 50,000 people each month, which is a tiny fraction of Australia's adult population.

Later in the week, the REINSW publish a more complete set of auction results, and they still put the NSW clearance rate in the seventies and eighties for the past few months, so Bayley's claim that all auctions unreported by 6PM on Saturday must be treated as failed auctions is total bunkum...

http://www.reinsw.com.au/Auction-results/default.aspx
Edited by Shadow, 16 Dec 2013, 08:56 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Ex BP Golly
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Shadow
16 Dec 2013, 08:06 AM
The APM results are just a free sample. They don't claim to have all the data - how can APM (or anyone) be expected to collect the result of every auction in Australia, and then compile this data into a report ready for release at 6PM each Saturday.......
I'm quite happy for them to take a week to get it right.

I don't need dodgy stuff just because it's quick and free.

Its simply industry propaganda.

Maybe the abc fact checkers could cast an eye over the reinsw stats as well?

Maybe they could examine a few more of the bears complaints about the dodgy propaganda (ie, cute yound real estate agents make up only 0.3% of first home buyers but make up 90% of news articles about first home buyers).

Suck it up Shaddow, APM, a wholey owned subsidiary of a major newspaper group that generates most of it's revenue from real estate ads is serving it's own interests.

And you feel you need to protect then by making up a straw man argument about ABS stats! LOL, most bears understand that ABS stats are also shiite, and lo and behold, it is the bulls who stick up for those stats as well!

At least you are consistent in your inconsistency!

N.B. I assume that cute young real estate agents would make up 0.3%, but maybe they could make up more, I am certain however they don't make up most, as per their representation representation rate in 'news' articles.
:lol






Edited by Ex BP Golly, 16 Dec 2013, 09:15 AM.
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Kulganis
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I think you need a new keyboard...

On topic though, I would expect a company that calls itself Australian Property Monitors to be accurate in their statistics about property. Not mostly accurate, but absolutely accurate. Perhaps with a little margin for error, but not much.
Edited by Kulganis, 16 Dec 2013, 09:16 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Ex BP Golly
16 Dec 2013, 09:03 AM
I'm quite happy for them to take a week to get it right.
That's fine - you should wait for the more complete REINSW results later in the week then. But there is still a demand for a more immediate (if incomplete) estimate on Saturday evenings, which APM provide for free. And that estimate proves to be accurate within a few percent when the later results come in. The Saturday evening auction results have always had this limitation, yet they have still proven to be a remarkably good indicator of market conditions, with a close correlation to house price movements...

Posted Image

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 16 Dec 2013, 09:19 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Ex BP Golly
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Kulganis
16 Dec 2013, 09:14 AM
I think you need a new keyboard...

On topic though, I would expect a company that calls itself Australian Property Monitors to be accurate in their statistics about property. Not mostly accurate, but absolutely accurate. Perhaps with a little margin for error, but not much.
I do indeed need a new keyboard.
Mine is siezing up from the bull shit that dribbles out of my screen whenever I view this site :D
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Kulganis
16 Dec 2013, 09:14 AM
I think you need a new keyboard...

On topic though, I would expect a company that calls itself Australian Property Monitors to be accurate in their statistics about property. Not mostly accurate, but absolutely accurate. Perhaps with a little margin for error, but not much.
For any data (about anything) you can only ever pick two of the three...

FREE
COMPLETE
TIMELY

The APM results are free and timely. You can't expect them to be complete.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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