My timing was out on that one by 6-12 months but I believe the reasoning was sound.
This one is a bit easier as there is a shorter time period left. I think that Sydney prices will continue to grow through to 30 June 2014. I'd say another 5% growth by then. There has still been strong auction results and this will feed into the reported numbers for at least 3-4 months. This leads to a reported strong start to 2014 and more 'confidence' or by now or miss out mentality which will give a strong period leading up to winter. Also rates will remain low, unemployment benign and there will be continued good (not bad) global economic news over this period.
From 30 June 2014 Sydney prices will subdue back to flat or very modest growth as this step in the market consolidates. At that point prices will be up against affordability constraints.
While continuing to get lots of scare mongering press SMSF buyers and non-Australian citizen Chinese buyers will each represent only a tiny percentage of the total market.
If I'm wrong about prices subduing from 30 June 2014 and prices from today are 10-15% higher by this time next year, I'll be the first to say we are heading into overheated territory which may result in a future correction (well maybe not the first).
This will be my last post. As previously mentioned I am self-employed and will continue to be so. However, I've been offered an additional position with an organisation that could make me reticent about the content of my posts and I would rather not post than be constrained in such a manner.
Farewell, it's been fun.
PS if any of you that are holding out do buy a house and get a large mortgage, it is scary for the first while. Especially the cash crunch after settlement day where you've had to pay stamp duty, legal costs, moving costs and often had some work done on moving in. You do you used to the mortgage very soon though. Repaying the first 1/3 of the loan is the hard part. After that the interest costs become trivial (well not nominally trivial but much less than rent for the same place and will 'feel' very comfortable). If you are re-paying extra you should be able to repay the second 2/3 in the time it took you to repay the first 1/3 of the mortgage.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
This will be my last post. As previously mentioned I am self-employed and will continue to be so. However, I've been offered an additional position with an organisation that could make me reticent about the content of my posts and I would rather not post than be constrained in such a manner.
Farewell, it's been fun.
I think that your prediction will be pretty close to the money. It seems very sensible. I expect more supply to come into Sydney so that will play into your mid year forecast and slow price growth.
I'll miss you barns. You are an eminently sensible person who has a real grasp of the issues and the economy. Great to hear that you have picked up some extra work, and I assume extra cash flow.
However, I've been offered an additional position with an organisation that could make me reticent about the content of my posts and I would rather not post than be constrained in such a manner.
BS, you're anonymous! How could your anonymous posts in a little know niche forum evr be linked to the organisation you work for???
Sounds more like you know the writing's on the wall for the property market and you want to get away from here with your dignity intact before it all blows up.
"LIMIT SALES TO FOREIGNERS, SAYS LABOUR" seems like this is the cry in a lot of the main/capital cities ie. London, Toronto, Auckland
I think Sydney will just pull away from the other capital cities due to foreign (mainly Chinese) investment. The other cities will have lessor increases due to less foreign investment but will still see increases due to people dipping into the SMSF.
BS, you're anonymous! How could your anonymous posts in a little know niche forum evr be linked to the organisation you work for???
Sounds more like you know the writing's on the wall for the property market and you want to get away from here with your dignity intact before it all blows up.
You're not as anonymous as you think, and besides Barns' new job might give him access to privileged information.
BS, you're anonymous! How could your anonymous posts in a little know niche forum evr be linked to the organisation you work for???
Sounds more like you know the writing's on the wall for the property market and you want to get away from here with your dignity intact before it all blows up.
lol.
it amazes me you can make such an accusation after spending YEARS on here posting about the big property crash thats just around the corner but never arrives.
PS.
good luck barns, hopfully you can post on here again in the future, you seemed to have brains which is the rarest of all commodities.
Have fun you hypocritical chardonnay socialist nimby dick head.
stinkbug omosessuale Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments. Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck! See here Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
BS, you're anonymous! How could your anonymous posts in a little know niche forum evr be linked to the organisation you work for???
Sounds more like you know the writing's on the wall for the property market and you want to get away from here with your dignity intact before it all blows up.
Anonymous or not, unethical/illegal/contract-breaking behavior remains unethical/illegal/contract-breaking.
I wouldn't be posting here either if I was privy to information that could be construed as insider information or information subject to non-disclosure. Too easy to let something slip that isn't in the public domain. Quite apart from the fact that it is wrong, unless you hide your tracks very well, you will be found if they want to badly enough.
Good luck Barns. I've enjoyed reading your posts.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off. --Gloria Steinem AREPS™
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