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Gold was in a bubble, but now it's going to have its first losing year for 13 years; Gold and Bitcoin Aren’t So Different After All
Topic Started: 10 Dec 2013, 10:16 PM (4,644 Views)
Catweasel
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Catweasel say a gold the miner,

in a Japan,

up a 30% in a 2013.

Not the sure how it can the be,

if it buy into sandpit narratives.

But Mrs the Catweasel been punting for a while,

and that how it the be.

For every the cloud,

be silver lining.
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propertymogul
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Frank Castle
11 Dec 2013, 01:34 PM
You never showed me to be wrong
What you showed was that "on paper" it could be done, if you were lucky enough to flip the coin and pick the right entry and exit date.
But in real life it was highly unlikely.

So yes, it is possible in hindsight to better property by gambling (punt, speculate) on gold shares......thanks for showing me,
But more likely is you will get your arse handed to you on a plate, as you also showed.

How did you go, did you make your fortune?
Ok well you've learned something.

Don't know about the more likely getting arse handed to on plate stuff - all depends on the timing of the purchase and sale. Best to buy cyclical stocks when they have taken a battering for 2-3 years (as long as the fundamentals are still reasonable), over the long term that strategy is shown to significantly outperform the broader market.

No - unfortunately I wasn't cashed up during the GFC had all my money tied up in property, which we sold for a reasonable (but not huge) profit. I started taking an interest in gold a few months ago and since then have:

Bought and sold GOLD (ETF) at a profit (approx. 12%)
Bought and sold PRU at a profit (50%) - bought at 0.545 and sold at 0.82.
Am currently holding NCM - bought at 9.68 - sitting on around a 20% loss
Am currently holding PRU - bought at 0.44 and more at 0.285 - average 33.5 cents
Am currently holding NST - just bought last week at 0.645 - currently sitting on a small profit
Overall am just slightly ahead since I started getting into gold stocks. A couple of them (NST and the 0.285 PRU parcel) I intend to hold for medium term on the chance there is another gold bull run, may not happen but if it does as shown it is big big profits 10x my outlay is realistic if gold gets back to its previous highs. The others I will sell for smaller profits if and when the opportunity arises.
Total exposure is relatively small compared to my available redraw, put it this way total gold stock exposure is less than the stamp duty on a $600k house in Qld.

Out of the gold sphere another stock worth looking at (I know you're not really into stocks so not directed at you so much as those who follow the stockmarket) is VMT. I bought this a few months ago at 2.1 cents, is currently around the 3 - 3.1 cents, they sell electric scooters in China and have recently started turning a profit which is increasing quite quickly. Can see this getting to 6-8 cents in the next 2 years and strong potential for a takeover at some point.

As always DYOR this is not advice.
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Strindberg
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propertymogul
11 Dec 2013, 03:49 PM
Total exposure is relatively small compared to my available redraw, ....
...so, borrowing money to buy gold miners?

Hang on, what redraw? You sold your house. You still have a mortgage?
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Count du Monet
11 Dec 2013, 01:10 PM
However the basic rule is, while the Majors practice ZIRP the gold bull is still alive. I'd still mark gold at $1600 with ZIRP afoot. While gold remains in the $1,000 to $2,000 range it remains a threat to the central banks as an alternative currency.
if anyone ever needed proof you are insane, it's that you STILL think gold is worth $1600/oz.

gold is not in a bull market. it's been slaughtered, down almost 25% this year, and has been on a losing streak for 3 years.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Count du Monet
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Pig Iron
11 Dec 2013, 04:39 PM
if anyone ever needed proof you are insane, it's that you STILL think gold is worth $1600/oz.

gold is not in a bull market. it's been slaughtered, down almost 25% this year, and has been on a losing streak for 3 years.
I was insane too when I said it was too cheap when it was $500.

I'll be even more insane and tell you even if the ECB doesn't buy gold, less than 150 ounces will buy the Melbourne medium at the end of the decade. Last gold peak it was 55 ounces and in the depression 80 ounces.

This is cheap gold, it will pay off.

Oh yea of little faith, you'll see gold beat you and your dreams!
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Poontang
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Frank Castle
11 Dec 2013, 12:18 PM
That leaves me out me out - I am not specufestoring gambler.


yep, words I am not used to
but I imagine the gambler would be
Just because it leaves you out does not mean it COULD not happen.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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propertymogul
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Strindberg
11 Dec 2013, 04:28 PM
...so, borrowing money to buy gold miners?

Hang on, what redraw? You sold your house. You still have a mortgage?
Well Strindberg, it is actually possible to sell a property and then, wow, miraculously buy another one. I've already told you I purchased a PPOR last year, and you said you didn't believe me. Sold 2 properties 2007-08 (one was PPOR), rented for around 8 months before re-locating to London to work for 2 years. Then rented again on return for around 20 months before purchasing a PPOR mid last year. Put down a 20% deposit, and the remainder of the funds are sitting in offset/redraw.

I suppose property investors use their equity as deposits for investment properties and to pay transaction costs on new properties. I've used a little equity (less than stamp duty on a $600k QLD property) to invest in 3 gold miners and 2 other stocks. I'm still keeping an eye on the property market but even with current low interest rates it doesn't stack up as an investment imo. If Brisbane were to fall another 10% (or close to) with current rents and current interest rates I would be considering buying a positive cashflow property on the fringes, but as always would weigh up the risk/reward against other possible investments.
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Poontang
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propertymogul
11 Dec 2013, 12:52 PM
my first pick would be NST. They seem to have just about the lowest cost production for ASX listed gold miners and are still profitable at current gold prices.

DYOR not advice (not that you would act on it anyway).
I like NST too, with being a dividend paying Gold Miner as well (around 5%) and the added bonus of the recent coal find (sale of coal assets could fund expansion or bring a capital return payment in the future)


I also like BDR
Pig Iron
11 Dec 2013, 04:39 PM
if anyone ever needed proof you are insane, it's that you STILL think gold is worth $1600/oz.

gold is not in a bull market. it's been slaughtered, down almost 25% this year, and has been on a losing streak for 3 years.
Nothing goes up in a straight line forever, you have said as much your self on this forum Timmy.

You have your opinion that gold is finished.. I, and others think it will continue the bull run up and have put our money up on that belief.

I am of the view is that gold and silver will go up far more over the next 3 or so years than it has fallen in the last 2 or so by some margin and have added to my PM holdings
Edited by Poontang, 11 Dec 2013, 06:21 PM.
There are some people who seem angry and continuously look for conflict.
Walk away, the battle they are fighting isn't with you, it's with themselves.

The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is not enough of anything to satisfy all who want it.
The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics. ~ Thomas Sowell.

Who was the fool, who the wise man, who the beggar or the Emperor? Whether rich or poor, all are equal in death.
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Count du Monet
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It's an iron clad rule, the USD devalues at 5% pa and the interest return is bugger all.....gold will beat that. Until rates return to normal the gold bull is still there.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Count du Monet
11 Dec 2013, 05:56 PM
I was insane too when I said it was too cheap when it was $500.

I'll be even more insane and tell you even if the ECB doesn't buy gold, less than 150 ounces will buy the Melbourne medium at the end of the decade. Last gold peak it was 55 ounces and in the depression 80 ounces.

This is cheap gold, it will pay off.

Oh yea of little faith, you'll see gold beat you and your dreams!
your only as good as your last trade so the saying goes.

your recent performance has been very poor.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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