wow PRU is really getting its arse kicked. I reckon you might be onto something (seriously). I think i'm going to have to ask my mrs for some more money tonight
Yeah virtually all of the gold miners have had their arses kicked over the last 2 years! I think you're taking the piss, but if you were to place a small amount of money on a gold miner, my first pick would be NST. They seem to have just about the lowest cost production for ASX listed gold miners and are still profitable at current gold prices. Also have zero debt and appear to be well managed (imo). PRU would be my second choice based on risk/reward - they are probably about break even at current gold prices but are still burning a bit of cash with exploration. They have been absolutely thumped though and a spike in the gold price to even $1,400 US would probably see the share price get to over $1 (300% return), riskier than NST though but with more upside potential. NCM have a little too much debt for my liking but would probably be third choice. If the gold price were to fall further and NCM share price went down to say $5 they would be a target for the really big international miners which provides a little insulation to the downside. KCN also has huge upside potential but a bit too risky imo.
The other thing going for gold shares is that they are the most battered shares on the market and some still have half decent fundamentals. History shows that the worst performing shares over 3 years outperform the best performing shares over the subsequent 3 years (on average and as a group) by a good margin from memory around 4-5% per annum. I could go on and on but will leave it at that.
DYOR not advice (not that you would act on it anyway).
Good misrepresentation by selecting key words. You asked for the numbers and they were given - Strawman extaordinaire!
They were words you used.
You said it was speculative You also said it was a punt...........Correct?
You said that if you were lucky enough to have picked the bottom and bought and picked the top and got out, that the results were fantastic But you would also be a liar.............Correct?
More likely is that it would have turned to shit in a spectacular fashion as it has done and you pointed out Arse handed to you on a plate............Correct?
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
Yeah virtually all of the gold miners have had their arses kicked over the last 2 years! I think you're taking the piss, but if you were to place a small amount of money on a gold miner, my first pick would be NST. They seem to have just about the lowest cost production for ASX listed gold miners and are still profitable at current gold prices. Also have zero debt and appear to be well managed (imo). PRU would be my second choice based on risk/reward - they are probably about break even at current gold prices but are still burning a bit of cash with exploration. They have been absolutely thumped though and a spike in the gold price to even $1,400 US would probably see the share price get to over $1 (300% return), riskier than NST though but with more upside potential. NCM have a little too much debt for my liking but would probably be third choice. If the gold price were to fall further and NCM share price went down to say $5 they would be a target for the really big international miners which provides a little insulation to the downside. KCN also has huge upside potential but a bit too risky imo.
The other thing going for gold shares is that they are the most battered shares on the market and some still have half decent fundamentals. History shows that the worst performing shares over 3 years outperform the best performing shares over the subsequent 3 years (on average and as a group) by a good margin from memory around 4-5% per annum. I could go on and on but will leave it at that.
DYOR not advice (not that you would act on it anyway).
Thanks for that, if other priority's weren't so pressing i would honestly give it a small punt (and i still might). What I should probably do is take the very small amount of silver I have left and throw the proceeds into some shares. From memory silver touched the $3's in Australia during the early 2000's which is one of the reasons i am still bearish even at the current 'discounted' price.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
There was heavy sell off amongst investors (excluding the ETF which I don't trust) in the 3rd quarter. The figures for the 4th quarter will be interesting but won't be generally available for two months. Selling ones ppor or borrowing to buy gold is gambling and recommend against by senior goldbugs. It's worthwhile use is as a savings vehicle in preference to CD's. A rapid rise in the gold price is only on cards if a central bank like the ECB buys heavily. They would do this to keep the exchange rate of the Euro down. This is not a course of action available for the FED which is an enormous debtor to the US treasury for 8,160 tonns. The central banks in this case the FED purchased heavily in the great depression and again 1979 to the 1980's with the aid the Euro and Japan.
However the basic rule is, while the Majors practice ZIRP the gold bull is still alive. I'd still mark gold at $1600 with ZIRP afoot. While gold remains in the $1,000 to $2,000 range it remains a threat to the central banks as an alternative currency.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
You said it was speculative You also said it was a punt...........Correct?
You said that if you were lucky enough to have picked the bottom and bought and picked the top and got out, that the results were fantastic But you would also be a liar.............Correct?
More likely is that it would have turned to shit in a spectacular fashion as it has done and you pointed out Arse handed to you on a plate............Correct?
The simple fact is Frank that you said:
You doubt that $50k on the right gold miner could blitz the return on property. You then asked for calculations etc. I provided calculations which showed comprehensively that you were wrong, and that $50k on the right gold miner could indeed absolutely thump the returns on property - 900% (unleveraged gold miner) vs 110% (leveraged property).
Instead of conceding that I showed that you were wrong when you said you doubted that statement, you pick out a couple of words of my post and make snide remarks. Why? Is it because you don't like to admit being wrong? Or is it because you can only win arguments when you misrepresent the other persons argument, and ignore where you are wrong.
The fact that I said it was speculative is irrelevant, it does not take away from the fact that you were wrong when you said you doubted the returns from shares in a gold miner could blitz property. You surely would have known prior to making your incorrect statement that buying shares in a gold miner is speculative - or did you not realise that? In fact every investment involves some form of risk, the term "speculative" is generally applied to investments with higher risk, however your investment in property is also speculative i.e. you are speculating on capital gains and rental increases.
I said the results were fantastic even if you did not pick the bottom and get out at the top - fairly clear if you read through the example the 900% gain is based on a more plausible buy and sell price. Using the top and bottom prices netted a more spectacular 1900%, however I said that was unlikely to be achieved. The phrase that I quoted about liars is a common one in the stockbroking industry and in my experience is generally true, however it is irrelevant to the argument as I didn't use the top and bottom prices in my example.
Got any more misrepresentations and diversions from being wrong strawman?
Instead of conceding that I showed that you were wrong
You never showed me to be wrong What you showed was that "on paper" it could be done, if you were lucky enough to flip the coin and pick the right entry and exit date. But in real life it was highly unlikely.
So yes, it is possible in hindsight to better property by gambling (punt, speculate) on gold shares......thanks for showing me, But more likely is you will get your arse handed to you on a plate, as you also showed.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
The ECB continues dumping QE. We live in interesting times!
Quote:
ECB balance sheet shrinks by 10.2 billion euros in week to Dec 6 By Reuters | 10 Dec, 2013, 08.27PM IST
FRANKFURT: The balance sheet of the European Central Bank and the euro zone's 17 national central banks shrank by 10.162 billion euros ($13.94 billion) to 2.281 trillion euros in the week ending Dec. 6, the ECB said on Tuesday.
Its gold holdings were unchanged at 343.920 billion euros, the ECB said in its weekly consolidated financial statement.
Net foreign exchange reserves in the Eurosystem of central banks rose by 0.3 billion euros to 207.1 billion, the ECB added.
It's interesting to note the FED owes quite a lot of gold to the Euro central banks with the Germans wanting theirs and told to bug off until 2020. Stuff like this indicates gold is still in business. The total FED debt in gold is well over 10,000 tons total. The FED in turn sub letting it to Wall Street. The FED prices gold at the US treasury fix of $42.20.....it keeps their balance sheet looking good!
Gold is good bet if the ECB buys, other wise Euro shares look like a value buy.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
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