Peter I find it odd that gold seems to have stopped just above the point at which we lose gold as an industry.
Do you think the risk of losing the production of the second largest miner is a factor?
actually the all in costs for places like boddington have been around $1500/oz for the last few years.
the price drives the marginal cost of production, not the other way around. they shrink or expand the pit shell depending on the price.
and it's hell funny listening to sayce admit gold was in a bubble and that he has been caught with his pants down.
goldbug
11 Dec 2013, 09:50 AM
The sprukers at the property seminars left out many home truths when they suckered the current crop of speculators into buying property and this is just one of them. The most obvious one was that property doesn't always double in value every 7 or 10 years, but I think most speculators here are already aware of that home truth
speaking of spruikers and their suckers, what happened to that gold bull you claimed we were in?
it's pretty clear you follow sayce, now that even he has capitulated you look more and more like a massive fool.
I find that very hard to believe. Calculations please, taking into account CF+ property and weekly rent of said property
Corrected for you
Easy Frank. As an example during the GFC gold miner PRU (Perseus Mining) went down to 19 cents, then peaked a couple of years later around $4. A $50k investment could potentially have netted you $950k profit (excluding dividends). However I think the saying "the only person who buys at the bottom and sells at the top is a liar" is general fairly accurate, lets assume the purchaser bought at 30 cents and sold at $3 netting $450k or 900% profit (excluding dividends). Lets say you manage to get a cashflow positive property (fairly rare after all costs including property management, maintenance, interest, insurance, landlord insurance, rates) but lets say you manage to do it. What sort of leverage - I'll assume a 20% deposit and 5% purchase costs. So your $50k gets you a $200,000 property. We'll say you are getting a 5% positive return on your $40,000 deposit = $2,000 per annum. We'll be generous and assume 10% capital growth per annum for 3 years. Sale price = $267k (rounded up). So gross profit = $67,000 capital gain + $6,000 income gain = $73,000. Less purchase costs of 5% ($10,000) and sale costs of 3% ($8,000) = $55,000 net gain or 110% profit. Granted the property is substantially lower risk, but as can be seen the potential reward of the speculative share is much greater. The company I mentioned has subsequently been smashed from around $4 to currently at around 24 cents so if you were to take that kind of punt as a contrarion investor now would be the time. While the investment in the gold miner is I agree more risky, perhaps it's not quite as risky as you would have us believe. The property investor is guaranteed to lose $10,000 straight away in purchase costs so immediately the investment in the gold miner can lose 20% to be equal. In addition the share investor could diversify by buying 5 x $10,000 shares in the best gold miners reducing their risk if say one or two were to go bankrupt. The property investor has had to take on $150,000 worth of debt and if their cash flow positive property (normally in smaller towns) were to not have a tenant for an extended period (how long does landlord insurance cover you for?, do you normally purchase landlord insurance?), or if other personal circumstances forced the property investor to sell at the wrong time (say 6 months after purchase and the property has gone down 3% in value) this would place them in a worse position than the share investor (unleveraged) who is forced to sell. If you were to apply leverage to the share investor position obviously the upside becomes astronomical but the downside to me would not be tolerable without a large buffer.
actually the all in costs for places like boddington have been around $1500/oz for the last few years.
the price drives the marginal cost of production, not the other way around. they shrink or expand the pit shell depending on the price.
and it's hell funny listening to sayce admit gold was in a bubble and that he has been caught with his pants down. speaking of spruikers and their suckers, what happened to that gold bull you claimed we were in?
it's pretty clear you follow sayce, now that even he has capitulated you look more and more like a massive fool.
wow PRU is really getting its arse kicked. I reckon you might be onto something (seriously). I think i'm going to have to ask my mrs for some more money tonight
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
yep, words I am not used to but I imagine the gambler would be
Bingo - that's the problem with some theoretical 'ways to wealth' - when things turn bad, they're often 'really bad'. I have lost money on metals that I should not have gambled. My take is if someone has their home paid for and wants to take a few punts that's great, but at least gamble with money you can afford to lose. One of the money morning writers sold his fucking house to buy gold about 18 months ago.. I hope he got a good deal on some ultra rare coins.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
The price of gold is back down to 2009 levels. You just wasted nearly five years... even worse in 'real' terms...
I suspect it's pointless trying to help him Shadow. Even respected APF metal guru, Count Du Monet would tell him that gold represents saving in real terms over the long haul. Today goldbug told me gold has a yield..
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy