No. of dwelling commitments, Owner occupied housing
Quote:
OCTOBER KEY POINTS
VALUE OF DWELLING COMMITMENTS
October 2013 compared with September 2013:
The trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.8%. Investment housing commitments rose 2.9% and owner occupied housing commitments rose 1.1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 4.1%.
NUMBER OF DWELLING COMMITMENTS
October 2013 compared with September 2013:
In trend terms, the number of commitments for owner occupied housing finance rose 0.6%. In trend terms, the number of commitments for the construction of dwellings rose 0.7% and the number of commitments for the purchase of established dwellings rose 0.6%, while the number of commitments for the purchase of new dwellings fell 0.1%. In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose to 12.6% in October 2013 from 12.5% in September 2013.
Home loan approvals rose 1.0 per cent in October - another sign that low interest rates are doing what they're supposed to.
There were 52,305 approvals in the month, compared to 51,792 approvals in September, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released on Tuesday.
The rise is in line with economists' expectations.
"It looks like another fairly solid outcome," National Australia Bank senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said.
"It's another indicator that points to the recent strength that we've seen in the housing market and growth in the investor sector.
"If you line that up with the building approvals data, which has seen quite a lot of growth in multi-level dwellings, or apartments, that suggests we're seeing a lot of investor activity in apartments coming through.
"It's a comfort to the Reserve Bank that low interest rates are working and with no interest rate rise on the horizon any time soon, you'd expect that housing finance approvals and other housing indicators continue to trend higher in coming months."
When, in future years, mortgage interest rates revert to mean, as they must, repaying half a million in principal is really going to hurt.
A lifetime of sacrifice by wage earners to buy a plot may be your preferred natural order, but anyone who takes a moment to glance at history will see this is a very recent and destructive trend.
The spruikers have invested much to discredit the FHB detail in this statistic. Yet it tallies exactly with the mumble of the market as young would-be homeowners are outbid by investors.
Let them take it, Homesteaders!
Renting is a snip at these price/rent multiples. But don’t do nothing; do something else: save, invest or study. Any of these will produce better life-time returns.
I recently bought a property to live in as a FHB. The move from renter to home owner has come with a number of benefits for ourselves and society.
We are now incentivised to improve our property in terms of energy efficiency etc and have already contracted solar installers, trades people etc to do so generating economic activity. Our children can look forward to a stable school progression and importantly the local government school can count on numbers needed to obtain funding and keep staff, programs. The neighbours even treat you better because they view you as a non-transient part of their lives.
Contrast this with the investor that has no incentive to improve property, can evict you at a moments notice (well, 6 weeks) leading to you potentially having to change your kids school and definitely having new neighbours.
Economic settings that favour the investor are economically and financially deleterious. Rent seeking begins with, well, rent.
david collyer May 16, 2012 at 12:01 pm ..... We can argue ourselves to a standstill about individual city markets, but the national trend is clear – house prices are falling and will continue to do so for years.
by David Collyer on March 15, 2011 ... "Do not underestimate the scale and significance of the transformation that is about to unfold. Price falls are imminent – protect yourself. Don’t Buy Now!” Collyer concluded.
Prosper sees property price falling 15%, perhaps 20% in 2012
by David Collyer on February 23, 2012 ... We expect property prices to wilt under these combined pressures, with prices at end December 2012 between 15 and 20 per cent less than today.
Fantastic news There'l be no complaints when the rent goes up again then will there.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
By Cameron Kusher on December 12, 2013 in Economics, Housing finance, Research, RP Data Rismark Indices
In last week’s RP Data Research Blog I discussed what I believe are some of the potential pitfalls of such a high level of investment activity in the housing market. The housing finance data for October 2013 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier this week and it showed an ongoing escalation in investment activity which is a potentially worrying development and one that APRA and the RBA will have a close eye on.
According to the October housing finance data, there was $10.3 billion worth of housing finance commitments for investment purposes over the month, up from $9.5 billion in September. The value of investment loans is at a record high up from its previous high in September. It is important to also keep in mind that housing finance data only looks at finance commitments to local authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs). We hear a lot of talk about overseas investors and often that money is not sourced locally. Given this, the true amount for all investors could be much higher.
The $10.3 billion of commitments to investors is still lower than the $11.6 billion worth of commitments to owner occupiers for non-refinanced loans but is also much larger than the $4.6 billion in owner occupier refinance commitments. As a proportion of the $26.5 billion in housing finance commitments over October, investment loans accounted for 38.9%. Although this amount may not sound that substantial, it was the highest proportion of investment finance commitments since December 2003 (39.3%) and not all that far from the record high proportion of 41.2% in October 2003.
If we look back to the peak in investor activity in October 2003, the annual rate of capital growth across the combined capital cities was recorded at 17.7% at that time. From there on, the annual rate of capital growth started to decelerate. This may suggest that as investment activity peaks (whenever that may be) it could be a precursor to a slowdown in overall capital growth conditions.
It looks as if much of the investor activity currently taking place is pure speculation on capital growth. Home values across the combined capital cities are 8.0% higher over the year which has significantly outperformed the 2.9% growth in rental rates. As the above chart shows, both the annual rate of rental growth and rental yields are falling which will result in a lower rental return. This is highlighted by the fact that we have seen capital city gross rental yields fall from 4.3% a year ago to 4.1% currently, which is not particularly attractive from an investment return perspective without the capital growth.
Of course this heightened level of investment activity with little focus on rental returns is likely to result in an even greater number of negatively geared owners of investment properties. The latest data from the Australian Tax Office (ATO) based on the 2010-11 financial year showed that 1,811,175 individuals claimed rental income and two thirds of which claimed rental losses of $13.285 billion. With investment activity currently so high and investors seemingly focused on capital growth it seems inevitable that the number and value of losses on residential investment properties is set to increase.
This heightened level of investment activity is also coming at the expense of first home buyers. Based on the number of owner occupier finance commitments, first home buyers accounted for just 12.6% of all owner occupier finance commitments in October, slightly higher than the record low of 12.5% the previous month. As the above chart shows on both a volume and percentage basis, first home buyer participation in the market is at near record low levels.
We know that the trend has been towards a greater proportion of the population renting however, there must be a sense that the high level of investment activity is to some degree locking potential first home buyers out of the market. The latest housing finance data shows that first home buyers and owner occupiers who are non-first time buyers have both recently started to increase their borrowing amounts. Obviously value escalation is partly responsible however, values were rising in 2009 and 2010 without any significant lift in borrowings. The data potentially indicates that investors are driving values higher and both first home buyers and non-first home buyers have a fear of missing out and are increasing their borrowings in order to enter the market.
If this trend continues it could be quite worrisome as it may lead to both increasing levels of household leverage along with increasing demand for loans with a higher loan to value ratios (LVR) meaning that buyers are using smaller deposits in order to enter the market. The heightened level of investment activity and the potential long-term repercussions for the housing market must surely now call for close scrutiny by both the RBA and APRA.
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