500k job losses? That's like 1/10 of the work force. That's pretty damned big.
Fark, everyone wants to write of Abbott straight away. He's only been in for 3 months.
I had written him off before he got in. Nothing he said before the election made me think he'd bring any new ideas to the table. I also expected this would be a bad election to win and it appears to be panning out that way.
You say a recession is 'due' but what does that actually mean?
Is there a certain number of recessions we're supposed to get every X years?
How do you determine that one is due?
I just told you.
Recessions are an ongoing function of the economic cycle.
The fact that we are on a world beating run without one means that we are due.
Unless, somehow, uniquely, Australia is no longer subject to the well established vagaries of the capitalist system.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
The bulls like to talk about housing cycles as they though are as predictable as the seasons. I'm surprised they don't see the economy in the same way.
The bulls like to talk about housing cycles as they though are as predictable as the seasons. I'm surprised they don't see the economy in the same way.
Actually, even the 22 year "no recession" run, there has still been a clearly observable economic/business cycle, reflected in GDP growth figures and unemployment numbers, as well as CPI etc. The unique thing about these 22 years is that we have not had a *deep* downturn - ie big enough to cause an "official" recession. 2001 and 2008 were mini-recessions, maybe even 1997 (Asian financial crisis period) as well. Although none were officially designated as such under the 2-negative-growth-quarters designation.
So I for one would not be claiming the end of the business/economic cycle. I think we have just been lucky that our last few downturns were mild - with the impact buffered compared to the past due to a) the development of China, and b) Australia's more flexible, less regulated economy compared to past periods (including the floating exchange rate).
Will we be able to weather future downturns as well? Certainly the higher private & household debt levels are not going to help with this, but China (and perhaps India) may continue to industrilaise for another decade or longer, which could continue to support our economy through the down periods? So so only time will tell. Always remember, there is nothing certain in life other than death adn taxes.
Total workforce size is 11-12M, so 1/25th more like. Still a huge hit though if it were to occur. Of course, they get years of notice, redundancy etc, so lots just retire, others have time to re skill etc. so I doubt direct impact would be 500k.
Reskill? to what? My job was off-shored and anything I was/am qualified for has also either been off shored or has moved along and out, technically speaking. My wife went off sick 2 years ago and cant get back in on account of rolling Indian contractors (officialy based in India) doing the job. I now drive a bus and my wife is considered unemployable. You dont hit 50 or perhaps even 40 and get re-skilled, no one is interested in taking you on,on that basis. I see a long decline in living standards with more casual part time work being shared among more people, perhaps like the USA/UK heading towards a 3rd world structure with non-living wage levels.
Total workforce size is 11-12M, so 1/25th more like. Still a huge hit though if it were to occur. Of course, they get years of notice, redundancy etc, so lots just retire, others have time to re skill etc. so I doubt direct impact would be 500k.
Reskill? to what? My job was off-shored and anything I was/am qualified for has also either been off shored or has moved along and out, technically speaking. My wife went off sick 2 years ago and cant get back in on account of rolling Indian contractors (officialy based in India) doing the job. I now drive a bus and my wife is considered unemployable. You dont hit 50 or perhaps even 40 and get re-skilled, no one is interested in taking you on,on that basis. I see a long decline in living standards with more casual part time work being shared among more people, perhaps like the USA/UK heading towards a 3rd world structure with non-living wage levels.
We are talking about assembly workers here - maybe some of them will re-skill like you did and drive busses as well? Someone has to drive those Indian contractors around town I suppose?
PS: I am having difficulty believing your obviously exaggerated story (although I am sure there are elements of truth to it). I personally have always had a plan a), plan b) and plan c) in terms of my job / career. So I always know what my next option to pursue will be if something changes that takes away my current opportunities.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Gold is performing perfectly, I couldn't imagine greater perfection! Gold is truth, which is better than anything else around these days.
Spoken like a devout gold worshipper..
I like gold too! Did you you that Linneys jewellers have produced a lovely collection of 18ct two tone gold South Sea collections ....good stuff.. Some pearls too.
Yeah gold is the truth for the girls....
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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