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Australia's five tidal waves of unemployment; No peace-time Prime Minister in Australia’s history has faced the challenge now facing Tony Abbott
Topic Started: 9 Dec 2013, 05:20 PM (6,930 Views)
Dr Kinetoscope
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Blondie girl
10 Dec 2013, 12:00 AM

Full time work should NOT be manipulated.
Entitlements shouldn't be manipulated & eroded....
I think the overall encapsulation of the problem is simply this.

High wages are not compatible with a global trade economy the way it is today. The only way to maintain high wages is to maintain high export prices, and we no longer really compete in quality anymore so in manufacturing that is a recipe for doom.

I think we either have higher wages and remain quite protectionist, or we have lower wages and take advantage of open trade. Option two is more sustainable in the long term, though politically unpalatable due to short term pain in the lower socio-economic group.

Mind you, within ten years 3D printing will bring about the end of Asia's manufacturing cost advantage, thus ending the 'China century' rather prematurely. Australia should already be looking to fund Australian entreprenuers through growth and funding in engineering and design education and projects.

Edited by Dr Kinetoscope, 10 Dec 2013, 12:29 AM.
Architecture Porn
ShadBerg's torrid Macrobusiness love affair
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Count du Monet
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Blondie girl
10 Dec 2013, 12:00 AM
Let's not forget what how gold is performing.... :bl:



Gold is performing perfectly, I couldn't imagine greater perfection! Gold is truth, which is better than anything else around these days.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

jesusjones
9 Dec 2013, 06:30 PM
I agree about no longer propping companies losing billions ie. motor industry.
Okay it's going to be hard for some but he money should be spent
On new sectors, research and training the young Aussies for the future.
We just have to let go of the past, propping up bust companies and outdated ideas is just like feeding dead sheep,
Not going to do you much good.
Peter
:pop:

Count du Monet
10 Dec 2013, 12:32 AM
Gold is performing perfectly, I couldn't imagine greater perfection! Gold is truth, which is better than anything else around these days.
Yes, I don't have any though.
But i would like to have some.
Peter
:pop:
Edited by Foxy, 10 Dec 2013, 02:36 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Dr Watson
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If this comes to pass the RBA will slash rates and house prices will surge. That would be very bad for FHB ... but that's what will happen.
The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt — Bertrand Russell
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newjez
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Logic
9 Dec 2013, 09:10 PM
Mmmmmm.......
If all the parts of the machine are present, then why not build an Aussie car again. A 100% Aussie owned company doing the Gemini again (under licence of course)?
No, you want to do a lotus, and specialize.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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peter fraser
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Dr Watson
10 Dec 2013, 07:50 AM
If this comes to pass the RBA will slash rates and house prices will surge. That would be very bad for FHB ... but that's what will happen.
Exactly - rates will be cut and the dollar will fall. Both of those factors will boost housing in the Eastern states.

The RBA has limited scope to subdue housing unless we get good news on the economy. My opinion is that this time the RBA will let housing run because it has to, which will then bring much needed supply to the market, so we should see some easing of the housing shortage for a few years at least.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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Count du Monet
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Dr Kinetoscope
10 Dec 2013, 12:27 AM


High wages are not compatible with a global trade economy the way it is today. The only way to maintain high wages is to maintain high export prices, and we no longer really compete in quality anymore so in manufacturing that is a recipe for doom.

Then get rid of the global economy!

Ancient Germany defended itself by forbidding Roman imports....and it worked too. Centuries later the Germans with only a tenth of the Roman population over ran the degenerate Empire.

A nation has a right to only allow trade on its own terms. There is only so much we need from the rest of the world. Goods that can be produced here should have punishing import duties.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Veritas
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Pig Iron
9 Dec 2013, 08:57 PM
it hasn't been a boom without end.

prices dropped about 10% 2011 - 2012.

you are the one with the problem here.
Its not just mining and resources.

Australia is long overdue a recession.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
10 Dec 2013, 12:03 PM
Australia is long overdue a recession.
How frequently is a recession typically due?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Veritas
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Shadow
10 Dec 2013, 12:08 PM
How frequently is a recession typically due?
Well, the current run we are on is a world record I believe so that should give you an idea.

And to think, I remember the days when the likes of Gordon Brown was making speeches declaring the boom bust economic cycle over.

Then the clock struck August 2007.

Of course, Australia could be different. :tu:
BTW, Chart of the day here.

Shadow's friends the (500,000) is it? ordinary Aussies who buy houses every year.

Except these people already own houses. Who knew!

Posted Image



Edited by Veritas, 10 Dec 2013, 12:20 PM.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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